Electricity generation outlook

Angus Walker picture-13This entry reports on whether the 'energy crunch' is getting nearer or receding.

One and two years ago I looked at whether new electricity generation was coming on stream fast enough to match a combination of increased demand and old generation being switched off. What does the picture look like now?

Current energy mix

The useful website (check the 'Generation by Fuel Type: Table') that shows where our electricity comes from at any instant shows the following today:

  • Coal: 32.9% now, 41.1% in 2013, 42.9% in 2012
  • Gas: 33.2% now, 27.5% in 2013, 26.6% in 2012
  • Nuclear: 19.9% now, 18.9% in 2013, 22.6% in 2012
  • Wind: 0.7% now, 6% in 2013, 3% in 2012
  • Pumped storage: 0.7% now, 0.8% in 2013, 0.8% in 2012
  • Hydrolelectric: 1% now, 0.8% in 2013, 0.6% in 2012
  • 'Other': 3.2% now, 1.7% in 2013, not shown in 2012
  • Imported: 8.4% now, 3.2% in 2013, 3.5% in 2012

The table shows a fairly dramatic drop in coal-sourced energy, a disappointing falling off in wind energy and an increase in gas and imported electricity through interconnector cables with France and the Netherlands. Mixed news for climate change - coal down good, gas up not quite as bad, wind down bad, French electricity is mainly nuclear. In a footnote, though, it says that wind is underrepresented because much of it is not metered, which is what is being measured, so that's something.

The drop in coal-fired generation is due to the implementation of the Large Combustion Plant Directive, which requires plants that don't comply with emissions limits (not CO2, somewhat ironically, but other emissions) to close by the end of 2015. Nine plants in the UK have opted out of compliance and six have closed already, the remaining three (Ironbridge, Littlebrook and half of Ferrybridge) having about 20 months left.

The emissions ratchet turns up another notch after that, with more stringent emission standards being required with the alternative being closure by 2023, under the Industrial Emissions Directive, so 2015 isn't the end of it.

Although there is a similar picture of planned closure for nuclear power stations, they are tending to have their operational lives extended. Oldbury is the only plant to have actually closed in the last eight years. Currently, Wylfa is due to close in 2015, Dungeness in 2018 and Heysham 1 in 2019, but the rest have been extended to the 2020s, and even those three may be extended too.

That's just as well, because since the Planning Act 2008 came in just one application for a nuclear power plant has been made, namely Hinkley Point C, and although it was granted consent, it is still subject to legal challenge. New plants at Sizewell and Wylfa are in the offing, but applications have yet to be made. Thus replacement nuclear capacity, never mind an increase, is a long way off.

In the pipeline

What about other types of project? Here is the state of play on applications for all forms of electricity generation since the last blog entry on this subject in February 2013.

Granted:

  • Hinkley Point C nuclear power station (3260MW capacity)
  • Brechfa Forest onshore wind farm (58-84)
  • Galloper offshore wind farm (504)
  • Triton Knoll offshore wind farm (1200)

Either didn't make it or subsequently dropped:

  • Blyth biomass plant (100)
  • Fieldes Lock power station (54)
  • Atlantic Array offshore wind farm (1500)

Applications currently under consideration (those with an asterisk hadn't carried out pre-application consultation at the time of the last blog post):

  • East Anglia One offshore wind farm (1200)
  • Burbo Bank offshore wind farm (169-234)
  • North Killingholme power station (430)
  • Clocaenog Forest onshore wind farm (64-96)
  • South Hook power station (500)
  • Walney offshore wind farm (572-768)
  • Hornsea offshore wind farm (1200)
  • *Rampion offshore wind farm (700)
  • *Dogger Bank Creyke Beck offshore wind farm (2400)
  • *Knottingley power station (1500)
  • *Swansea tidal lagoon (240)
  • *Hirwaun power station (299)
  • *Dogger Bank Teesside offshore wind farm (2400)
  • *Progress power station (299)
  • *Navitus Bay offshore wind farm (970)
  • *Mynydd y Gwynt onshore wind farm (81)

Prospective applications that have carried out pre-application consultation (those with an asterisk are new since last time):

  • Southampton biomass (100)
  • Nant-y-Moch windfarm (140-176)
  • Dyfnant Forest windfarm (80-120)
  • Palm Paper CCGT (162)
  • *Ferrybridge Multifuel project (90)
  • *Internal enhancement Port Talbot Steelworks (74-129)
  • *Rhiannon windfarm (2200)

What conclusions can be drawn from this? Several, I think. There is a veritable glut of large-volume generation currently in the system, which is certainly encouraging. There are several traditional power stations, and all those above 500MW are wind projects. Wind energy is neither 'baseload' (always on and reliable) or 'dispatchable' (controllable), however, and these types of energy are also needed.

What is less encouraging is that the pipeline of projects beyond that is much smaller and only contains one substantial project above 200MW. It is possible that applicants are tending not to announce themselves until they're all ready to go, but this is still a cause for concern. If the future energy mix for the UK is a combination of carbon captured gas, new nuclear and wind/other renewables, then only one of those three pieces of the jigsaw is really taking shape (ironically the one that the Government seems least keen on these days).

So to answer the initial question, from the available evidence the energy crunch has advanced somewhat over the last year, which is something that needs to be addressed.